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The world’s most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, did not see his shadow in February, predicting an early spring. But that certainly is not the most exciting thing to come out of Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, where Phil and his partner, Phyllis, reside.
In late February, Phil and Phyllis welcomed two babies, a spring surprise for the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club since no one knew Phyllis was pregnant. A succession plan in the making?
In the meantime, Phil’s early spring prediction, while not scientific, is in line with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, which is forecasting above-average temperatures for most of the continental United States.
Released March 21, NOAA’s spring outlook for April through June reports that above-average temperatures are likely to persist across much of the U.S. The greatest chance for above-average temperatures is in the Great Lakes region, the Pacific Northwest and Northwest Alaska, according to the report; though most of the continental U.S. and Alaska have elevated odds of above-average temperatures.
Victoria Lang, a Ph.D. student in Earth and planetary sciences at Northwestern University, explained that spring occurs because Earth spins on a slightly tilted axis. During winter, the northern hemisphere is tilted away from the sun, resulting in fewer hours of sunlight and less direct sunlight. Conversely, during summer, the tilt is toward the sun, leading to more hours of sunlight and more direct sunlight.
“Spring represents the transition between the two,” Lang said. ”The astronomical definition of the start of spring is marked by the Spring Equinox, which symbolizes this shift in sunlight distribution.”
The current warming trend is likely to continue, with climate change being a primary driver, Lang added, citing the Fifth National Climate Assessment, a mandated report that outlines climate change risk, impacts and responses in the U.S. The report confirms shorter winters and earlier spring and summer seasons due to climate change.
“I would emphasize that several factors contribute to the timing of spring, such as large-scale atmospheric circulations El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific-North American pattern, large-scale weather systems, or ocean currents, so this general trend varies year to year,” Lang said. “This generally means that while this year’s spring appeared to arrive early, it does not mean that next year or the following year will as well. But, when we average spring onset over time, we are seeing the shift to an earlier spring onset.”
The 2023-24 El Niño pattern that made last summer particularly hot – and this winter unusually balmy – is coming to an end. El Niño occurs when warm water builds up along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The ocean surface warms the atmosphere, which allows moisture-rich air to rise and develop into rainstorms.
El Niño can have different impacts in different parts of the county, according to Lang.
“For most of the country, it means higher than average temperatures, which we can characterize as an earlier onset to our spring season,” Lang said. “In parts of the country, this could also mean above-average rainfall and others below average.”
In fact, in the upper Midwest and northern Great Plains, snowfall this past winter was well below average, according to NOAA. And while below-average snowfall lowers the region’s flood risk, it also means there’s not as much water available to start the growing season.
But don’t flowers such as crocuses and daffodils also signal the arrival of spring? The answer is yes, and that’s called phenology, which uses blooming, or First Leaf indexes, of specific plants as indicators of spring, Lang said.
According to the USA National Phenology Network, spring arrived in Chicago 15 days early this year, compared to a long-term average from 1991-2020. First Leaf and First Bloom indexes are synthetic measures of these early-season events in plants, based on recent temperature conditions.
And while common spring indicators such as crocuses, daffodils and forsythias are what we normally think of, the US-NPN’s First Leaf Index is based on the leaf of lilacs and honeysuckles, which are among the first plants to show their leaves in the spring.
The First Bloom Index is based on the flowering of lilacs and honeysuckles. This index is associated with blooming of early-spring shrubs and leaf out of deciduous trees.
Finally, while most of us hail an early spring as a chance to bust out the grill, there can be unpleasant side effects.
“With plants and trees blooming earlier than they had previously, if you suffer from seasonal allergies, you may need to stock up on your favorite antihistamines,” Lang said. “While seasonal allergies sound benign, a longer pollen or mold allergy season could have real-world impacts on people missing work or school and general respiratory health.”
Earlier spring seasons, with less snow on the ground, could also lead to longer seasons for pests such as mosquitoes, she said.
Further, while not something Midwesterners worry about as much, spring seasons and weaker winter seasons could mean more wildfires, particularly for the western United States, according to Lang. Earlier and warmer springs can result in an earlier melting of snow, or a reduced snowpack, which limits water availability later in the season and ultimately contributes in part to an increased risk of wildfires.
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Belinda Lichty Clarke works as the alumni engagement director at Medill at Northwestern and is a freelance writer. After graduating with a master’s from Medill in 1994, Belinda worked in public relations,… More by Belinda Lichty Clarke
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