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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — As hurricane season approaches, we discuss the growing role climate change plays in the intensity of tropical storms. While climate change may not be creating more hurricanes, experts say it’s clearly making them stronger—and more dangerous.
Meteorologist Robert Speta recently spoke with Shell Winkley, a climate expert with Climate Central, to unpack how a warming planet is shifting the scale of storm impacts—and how new tools like the Climate Shift Index and the Flood Vision program are helping communities prepare.
“We know that with climate change, we’re not only warming the atmosphere, but we’re also warming the oceans,” Winkley said. “Carbon pollution from human activity sinks into the oceans, which hold the majority of the Earth’s heat.”
That extra heat in ocean surface waters acts like fuel for hurricanes. Warm water gives storms the energy they need to intensify, often rapidly. Winkley emphasized that while hurricanes are natural weather phenomena, the added warmth from climate change can supercharge their strength.
“You could have had a Category 3 hurricane, but because of the additional heat, that storm might become a Category 4,” she explained. “That half-category increase can double the potential damage, especially from wind and storm surge.”
To better understand this impact, Climate Central developed the Climate Shift Index (CSI)—a tool rooted in peer-reviewed science. It works by running climate models under two scenarios: one reflecting today’s world filled with human-generated carbon emissions, and one simulating a pre-industrial world without them.
By comparing these models, scientists can determine how much more likely a specific extreme temperature or condition—like unusually warm sea surface temperatures—is due to climate change.
“It’s not saying that hurricane wouldn’t have existed,” Winkley said. “But it helps us understand how much human influence increased its intensity or made that extreme temperature more likely.”
This attribution science offers a powerful answer to a common question: Why is this happening?
Understanding risk is one thing—seeing it is another. That’s the idea behind Flood Vision, a visual mapping program developed by Climate Central. Using LIDAR and street-level imagery, similar to Google Maps, the program visualizes how rising seas and storm surges could affect specific communities.
“Say a hurricane is forecast to bring three to six feet of storm surge,” Winkley said. “That’s hard to picture unless you’ve lived through it. Flood Vision allows you to see exactly how high the water could rise—on your street, near your home, or where you work.”
The tool has mapped much of the East and Gulf Coasts, offering a powerful way for people to make safer, more informed decisions during storms.
For many, climate change becomes real only when it hits home. According to Winkley, that’s why tools like the Climate Shift Index and Flood Vision are essential for public awareness—especially in hurricane-prone areas.
“Most people experience climate change through extreme weather,” she said. “Whether it’s a hurricane, a flood, or an unusually hot April day, attribution science helps us link those events to a warming world.”
Research shows that people living in coastal communities are more likely to understand the link between hurricanes and climate change, likely due to their direct experiences. In contrast, inland communities tend to connect more with heatwaves or floods.
For those interested in exploring the data and science behind these tools, ClimateCentral.org offers extensive resources, including real-time Climate Shift Index maps and educational materials on how climate change is influencing local weather patterns. The organization also shares updates and visuals through their social channels @ClimateCentral.