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An environmental activist and researcher has issued a stark warning about the critical state of Iran’s environment, highlighting issues such as land subsidence, depletion of underground water tables, deforestation, and severe air pollution. Mohammad Darwish, an environmental expert, revealed that Iran’s thousand-year water reserve has been nearly exhausted over the past three decades.
On Saturday, June 22, Shargh newspaper detailed Darwish’s speech during a meeting focused on “Investigating the Causes of Land Subsidence.” Darwish attributed the dire situation to excessive extraction of underground water, labeling Iran as a nation plagued by water shortages and having the highest rate of land subsidence globally. Despite this, the country continues to generate wealth through “virtual water exports” and the production of agricultural and dairy products.
Darwish cited a recent example, saying, “The media adviser to the Minister of Energy informed me that three percent of all agricultural subscribers in the provinces of Isfahan, Kerman, Razavi Khorasan, and South Khorasan consume water equivalent to 30 percent of the country’s total consumption. Their dominance is such that we cannot stop them.”
Isfahan and Khorasan-Razavi have been identified as major centers of land subsidence, having faced warnings about their condition for years. Indiscriminate withdrawals of water resources for agricultural, industrial, tourism, and construction purposes are key contributors to this issue.
Darwish described Iran’s current situation as “extremely dangerous,” noting that most of the 250 billion cubic meters of water expected to be in underground aquifers have been depleted in the last three decades. He stressed that the amount of water consumed during this period equates to a thousand-year reserve, which is a crucial indicator of biological security.
He further explained that authorities must recognize that a well that subsides would require “at least 50,000 years of patience” to recover. Furthermore, he also highlighted the urban sewerage network’s role in worsening land subsidence in settlements and metropolises, stating, “100% of Tehran’s sewerage network aggravates the issue of subsidence.” With a 150-meter drop in underground water levels, Tehran’s situation is particularly dire, and completing the sewage network could prevent any water from infiltrating the ground.
Darwish presented alarming statistics, indicating that Iran’s rate of soil erosion is eight times higher than the global average, resulting in an annual loss of $56 billion in land value. Despite this, most reports on the subsidence crisis remain classified.
Research shows that at least 57,000 square kilometers of Iran’s soil is experiencing subsidence of more than one centimeter per year. According to Darwish, the critical threshold for ground subsidence is four millimeters, beyond which the situation becomes dire. The Geological Organization of Iran reports that parts of the country are subsiding by more than two centimeters annually, affecting an area of over 50,000 square kilometers—five times above the critical limit.
The organization recorded a point subsidence of 36 centimeters in southwest Tehran and Shahryar Plain in 2010, which is 90 times above critical conditions. By 2015, subsidence between Dasht-e Fasa and Jahrom in Fars province had increased to 54 centimeters per year, 140 times the critical level. Darwish emphasized that such extreme statistics are unprecedented globally.
In recent years, no location in Iran has recorded subsidence above the four-centimeter mark, but Darwish warns that this is not good news. It indicates that there is no more water in the underground aquifers, effectively depleting these vital resources.
For years, environmental activists and experts have stressed the need for a food security document to address these crises. In 2023, such a document was approved, signed by the regime’s defunct president Ebrahim Raisi. The document mandates reducing water consumption in the agricultural sector from 81 billion cubic meters to 51 billion cubic meters by 2032. Additionally, it aims to reduce the imbalance of aquifers to minus 105 billion cubic meters by 2032, down from the current 150 billion cubic meters.
The government has committed to cutting water consumption by 45 billion cubic meters overall, including 30 billion cubic meters from agriculture and 15 billion cubic meters from industrial, domestic, and service sectors. Despite these targets, current statistics show a negative balance of 4.4 billion cubic meters this year.
As the deadline for presenting the annual performance report of the food security document approaches in July, Darwish commented, “We are waiting for the official announcement that in the first year of implementing the food security document, they faced absolute failure.”
Reports indicate that land subsidence poses a significant risk to 380 cities and 9,200 villages across Iran, especially in the event of an earthquake, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive environmental management and reform.
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