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Nature Ecology & Evolution (2024)
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Large pulses of tree mortality have ushered in a major reorganization of Europe’s forest ecosystems. To initiate a robust next generation of trees, the species that are planted today need to be climatically suitable throughout the entire twenty-first century. Here we developed species distribution models for 69 European tree species based on occurrence data from 238,080 plot locations to investigate the option space for current forest management in Europe. We show that the average pool of tree species continuously suitable throughout the century is smaller than that under current and end-of-century climate conditions, creating a tree species bottleneck for current management. If the need for continuous climate suitability throughout the lifespan of a tree planted today is considered, climate change shrinks the tree species pool available to management by between 33% and 49% of its current values (40% and 54% of potential end-of-century values), under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) and severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate change, respectively. This bottleneck could have strong negative impacts on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity conservation, as only 3.18, 3.53 and 2.56 species of high potential for providing these functions remain suitable throughout the century on average per square kilometre in Europe. Our results indicate that the option space for silviculture is narrowing substantially because of climate change and that an important adaptation strategy in forestry—creating mixed forests—might be curtailed by widespread losses of climatically suitable tree species.
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The data that support the findings of this study are available online in the Phaidra database: https://phaidra.univie.ac.at/o:2046439.
All code used for simulations, analysis and producing the figures is available online in the Phaidra database: https://phaidra.univie.ac.at/o:2046439.
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F.E. acknowledges funding by the Austrian Science Foundation FWF (grant no. I 3757-B29). R.S. and W.R. acknowledge support from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 101001905, FORWARD). Species pictograms were drawn by Michael Herzog.
Division of Biodiversity Dynamics and Conservation, Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Johannes Wessely, Andreas Gattringer, Bernhard Hülber, Dietmar Moser & Stefan Dullinger
Division of BioInvasions, Global Change and Macroecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Franz Essl
Centre for Invasion Biology, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
Franz Essl
Division of Tropical Ecology and Animal Biodiversity, Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Konrad Fiedler
Research Division Cartography, Department of Geodesy and Geoinformation, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria
Olesia Ignateva
Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
Werner Rammer & Rupert Seidl
Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany
Rupert Seidl
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S.D., R.S., W.R. and F.E. conceived the idea. J.W. led the data compilation and analyses, with contributions by all authors. A.G., D.M. and J.W. derived the climate data. O.I. produced the dashboard, and B.H. produced the single species webpages. K.F. compiled all Lepidoptera data. R.S., W.R. and K.F. derived the tree species profiles. All authors contributed to interpreting the results. R.S. and J.W. led the writing of the paper, with contributions from all authors.
Correspondence to Johannes Wessely.
The authors declare no competing interests.
Nature Ecology & Evolution thanks Julen Astigarraga, Ian McFadden and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. Peer reviewer reports are available.
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
(a) Map of the number of tree species that are climatically suitable continuously throughout the 21st century at 1 km² grid cells, and thus form the species pool that can be utilized by current forest management. (b) Percent of species from the current species pool (2020–2029) that cannot be sustained throughout the century. (c) Percent of species that are gained in grid cells (1 km²) at the end of the century (2090–2099) relative to the species that are climatically suitable throughout the century. Tick mark in legend shows the average value across Europe. Stylized figures illustrate exemplary climate niches (green ellipses) for (inset A) species that are climatically suitable throughout the 21st century, (inset B) species suitable under current climate but not under the climate at the end of the century, and (inset C) species suitable only under future, but not current climate. Black lines exemplarily indicate climatic development in temperature-precipitation-space throughout the 21st century.
(a) Map of the number of tree species that are climatically suitable continuously throughout the 21st century at 1 km² grid cells, and thus form the species pool that can be utilized by current forest management. (b) Percent of species from the current species pool (2020–2029) that cannot be sustained throughout the century. (c) Percent of species that are gained in grid cells (1 km²) at the end of the century (2090–2099) relative to the species that are climatically suitable throughout the century. Tick mark in legend shows the average value across Europe. Stylized figures illustrate exemplary climate niches (green ellipses) for (inset A) species that are climatically suitable throughout the 21st century, (inset B) species suitable under current climate but not under the climate at the end of the century, and (inset C) species suitable only under future, but not current climate. Black lines exemplarily indicate climatic development in temperature-precipitation-space throughout the 21st century.
Bars in dark green show the number of species continuously suitable from 2020 until the respective decade. For example, tree species in dark green in the 2090 s are the species that can be planted today and will be within their climatic niche throughout the entire 21st century. Bars in light green show the number of species that become additionally suitable in this decade because of climate change, but are not yet within their climatic niche under current conditions (and thus have a high planting risk today). Bars in brown show the number of species lost until this decade, relative to current conditions, that is, species that cannot be sustained within their climatic niche. Error bars show the coefficient of variation across Europe.
Bars in dark green show the number of species continuously suitable from 2020 until the respective decade. For example, tree species in dark green in the 2090 s are the species that can be planted today and will be within their climatic niche throughout the entire 21st century. Bars in light green show the number of species that become additionally suitable in this decade because of climate change, but are not yet within their climatic niche under current conditions (and thus have a high planting risk today). Bars in brown show the number of species lost until this decade, relative to current conditions, that is, species that cannot be sustained within their climatic niche. Error bars show the coefficient of variation across Europe.
Number of species that have high potential for addressing three important ecosystem functions (timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity conservation) are shown in different colours (brown, black, green). Colour intensity indicates the number of cells for a certain number of species, and reaches from 0 (white) to the maximum number of cells per ecosystem function and region (dark hues). For each ecosystem function the first column shows the number of species with high potential for the current species pool (2020–2029). High potential species that are continuously suitable throughout the 21st century (and thus potential options for current management) are shown in the second column. Red lines indicate the average number of species.
Number of species that have high potential for addressing three important ecosystem functions (timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity conservation) are shown in different colours (brown, black, green). Colour intensity indicates the number of cells for a certain number of species, and reaches from 0 (white) to the maximum number of cells per ecosystem function and region (dark hues). For each ecosystem function the first column shows the number of species with high potential for the current species pool (2020–2029). High potential species that are continuously suitable throughout the 21st century (and thus potential options for current management) are shown in the second column. Red lines indicate the average number of species.
Maps are shown for three climate change scenarios. Multifunctionality is defined as areas with at least two species with high potential for each of the three ecosystem functions considered.
Supplementary Tables 1–9 and Fig. 1.
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Wessely, J., Essl, F., Fiedler, K. et al. A climate-induced tree species bottleneck for forest management in Europe. Nat Ecol Evol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02406-8
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