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Nature Ecology & Evolution (2024)
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Climate change is driving a rapid redistribution of life on Earth. Variability in the rates, magnitudes and directions of species’ shifts can alter spatial overlap between predators and prey, with the potential to decouple trophic interactions. Although phenological mismatches between predator requirements and prey availability under climate change are well-established, ‘spatial match–mismatch’ dynamics remain poorly understood. We synthesize global evidence for climate-driven changes in spatial predator–prey overlap resulting from species redistribution across marine and terrestrial domains. We show that spatial mismatches can have vastly different outcomes for predator populations depending on their diet specialization and role within the wider ecosystem. We illustrate ecosystem-level consequences of climate-driven changes in spatial predator–prey overlap, from restructuring food webs to altering socio-ecological interactions. It remains unclear how predator–prey overlap at the landscape scale relates to prey encounter and consumption rates at local scales, or how the spatial reorganization of food webs affects ecosystem function. We identify key research directions necessary to resolve the scale of ecological impacts caused by species redistribution under climate change.
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Environmental Defense Fund, Seattle, WA, USA
Gemma Carroll
Center for Ecosystem Sentinels, Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Briana Abrahms
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Environment, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
Stephanie Brodie
Institute of Marine Science, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
Megan A. Cimino
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G.C., B.A., S.B. and M.A.C. conceptualized the paper, reviewed the literature and wrote the paper.
Correspondence to Gemma Carroll.
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Nature Ecology & Evolution thanks Albert Phillimore and Joel Durant for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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Carroll, G., Abrahms, B., Brodie, S. et al. Spatial match–mismatch between predators and prey under climate change. Nat Ecol Evol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02454-0
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